Beef Prices Expected to Continue to Increase

U.S. beef prices are expected to keep climbing as cattle numbers hit their lowest level since the 1950s and herd rebuilding remains stalled, the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture projects. The national herd has shrunk by 8 million head since 2019, with drought and high costs limiting recovery. Retail beef averaged $8.56 per pound in 2025, 60 cents higher than the previous year, making beef four times more expensive than chicken. Arkansas cattle prices rose nearly 30% year-over-year, while national beef production fell 1.2 billion pounds below 2024 levels. Imports, especially lean beef for ground products, have increased to offset shortfalls, while drought continues to pressure forage quality.